NIFTY – Now you got me thinking

 

Well, I never expected Nifty to hold the 60xx levels during the correction (previous post here). As usual, Nifty did what it had to – a nice bounce from the levels albeit after a bit of teasing by going below 6000 levels. While Bulls are still not out of the woods but, the Bears have long way to go for touch-down. If Nifty manages to convincingly take out the previous top, then tagging 70xx levels might happen in jiffy (within 6 months – we know the 2014 election results then). It looks like the bullish scenario will pan out, quite a rosy picture for the bulls. But, I’m just trading and refraining from exploring any investing options.

Charts below …

 

Finolex Cables – Value Play?

 

Lots of buzz around Finolex scrip as value play, I think not? Risk Reward does not favor the buyers here …

Weekly Chart below for you to analyze …

NIFTY – In UnCharted (sic) Territory???

 

NIFTY if holds the 60xx levels in coming correction (if there is one???) then high possibility of life-time highs on the charts. We all know, what happens when a free-spirited thing enters un-charted territory. The uptrend remains intact while we trade above 57xx levels & we begin our journey south only on strong close below 54xx levels (not happening this expiry). I’m still not buying this rally, just trading. Letting NPV of the cash I’m sitting on being eroded by inflation & non-participation in the rally.

Daily Chart of NIFTY below …

Random Charts – Sep 30

 

Posting some Random Charts, as part of the Random series. Trade setups as I see it on the Larger time-frame (Weekly) Charts. I will selectively pick some of these trades based on the market sentiments & on my personal trade parameters.

Trade Safely & Invest Wisely !!!

NIFTY – Case for the Bulls !!!

 

I know, I’ve been bearish for eons now but, without much success. In my previous post I’d stated my bearish expectations. In the below chart, trying to build a case for the Bulls. If this happens, this will be huge. But, I doubt it …

 

NIFTY @ Interesting Juncture

September as usual has been an interesting month for Nifty

We saw an 700+ points move in Nifty with an gain of about 400+ points. I had tweeted about it at the beginning of the month.

Going forward, my thoughts with Nifty 15 min chart below …

Power of 360 – Random Charts

 

Posting below few random Weekly charts, all of them near about 360 levels which happens to be critical Support/Resistance levels. Breakout or Breakdown can ensure a good move … enjoy & have a good one !!!

 

Wockhardt – Pharmer in making :)

 

It is at really mouth watering levels but, technically need to wait. I don’t understand the fundamentals & the US FDA regulations of 483 etc so, absolutely confused … but, do keep this on your radar is my suggestion.

Chart below

Random Charts

 

Posting some random weekly charts here, not trying to portray a gloomy picture. But, the overall picture does not look quite rosy … Maybe, except for likes of Rakesh Jhunjhunwala et al who feels its ok for investors to lock-in there slogged-a$$ sweat earned money at these levels for next 5 to 10 years. Definitely good for big fat sharks to exit and come back in-play at the right time, while the gullible long-term investor holds the baton for them … I’d rather be investrader & act accordingly on my own instincts.

 

Put the darn Glass Down :)

 

No No … I didn’t mean that Glass ……………………… 

 

SBIN – Aall izz wellll?

 

Future looks gloomy technically, reaching an strong support zone, will it hold? need to watch. If breaks down below this zone, we will be filling the 2009 Gap & will go down even to 1300 levels.

Weekly Chart below

Ranbaxy, Fresh Longs?

Think Again, Risk Reward favors only Shorts with maybe and I say maybe SAR above the critical levels. Charts below with the Critical levels to watch …

NIFTY – Expiry Update

 

Nifty July has expired, Long Live Nifty !!!

Expect an bounce from here, if not, we will see 5750 levels. I expect one euphoric re-visit to 6200 levels in Nifty & meltdown only below 5400 levels.

Charts below – Watch the marked rectangles for key support and resistance

NIFTY – Mid Week Update

 

Nifty at critical juncture, my thoughts with charts below

Nifty 15 min chart says – we might bounce tomorrow to see 58xx levels again. Gap up open possible to secure the 5800 levels, will ensure smooth break of the trend-line which also happens to be 38.% Fibo fan resistance. Expected up-move for the bounce till 5890/5925 levels, chart below

S&P 500 – Chart

 

NIFTY – Weekly Update

 

As expected, May series proved to be “Roj Kuch Toofani ho Jaaey”. The market behavior is apt only for agile traders and not meant for the kinds of “slow and steady wins the race”.

The Weekly chart looks quite bearish, with possible revisit of 56xx levels. If we do revisit, those levels (I think we will), defending 55xx levels will be critical for the bulls and taking it down to the 54xx is what Bears will be gunning for, bloodbath below 54xx levels. I’m confused and in dilemma but, not shifting the camp till the Nifty top of 63xx is taken out and more importantly how/when if it gets taken out. Intra day trading and hedged bets is the option till market decides where it wants to head decisively.

NIFTY Weekly chart below, last 2 candles are quite intense

S&P 500 – Going Going …

 

I have been hearing since, 1400 levels that S&P will crash but, today 1600 levels has been scaled effortlessly. While, I don’t have any belief in this rally but, the charts are saying nothing wrong about this rally as well. A very sustained rally with healthy corrections at each stage (except for the current rally). We will wait for the reversal signs whenever they emerge but, there is no need to short the market just because you/everyone else is in disbelief.

Cannot say the same about Nifty’s strength in the rallies … it is just doing jhampak jhapak –> for the uninitiated http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k-tgKsyUMBU

Below is the S&P 500 Daily Chart, please point out what’s so wrong with this rally & why this disbelief?

Commodities : RIP

 

Massacre of all the commodities bulls would not be an exaggerated statement. We talked about Gold’s fate here. But, this is not we had in mind, seriously. There is much more to come so, don’t go catching the falling knife neither do try to board a speeding train. Except for Natural Gas none of them stand a chance yet. Below are long term charts for the commodities.

 

Nifty – Weekly Update

If you think you are an Trader, you should be minting money in this market. I prefer to call myself an investor. On a serious note, the volatility in the markets are giving multiple opportunities to TRADE for the serious traders.
What to expect from here-on : We have seen about 200 points drop from the highs in the series and the series is just in its first week. All the so-called strong supports and the mighty 200 DMA has taken a bow. But, I do expect an bounce-back from the current 5550 levels. If this level falls then we are seeing further 100 point drop to fill the gap from September.
Also, bounce from here will help Bears build the next shoulder (right shoulder) for the Bulls (to cry on : – ). I see an Head & Shoulder pattern developing, a bounce from here and subsequent fall will build the right shoulder - the break of neckline, where we currently are will close the gap and give a swift 600 point move (target of the H&S pattern). The bounce should take us to 58xx levels but, now I strongly feel that 59xx level is history. Just like the rounding bottom pattern which I was hoping to take Nifty to 59xx levels – check here
Lets wait and watch, how this pans out. Below are Nifty charts with different time frames.

Bank Nifty

BankNifty has same pattern as in Nifty mentioned here
Hourly Chart

Nifty – Quick Update

 

Below is Nifty Hourly chart, looks like an rounding bottom formation in progress. No Shorts above 5790 levels in which case we might be moving towards 59xx levels (one last time : – ) ???

We will review the scenario once it pans out, till then TRADE carefully.

 

Nifty–O Manchali kahan chali? :)

Surprised by the move? not really, check here … did the move catch me off-guard, it sure did but, then I’d previously mentioned a long tube-light is expected in weekly chart, was expecting within the channel but, happened outside of it.
Below some of the Nifty different time-frame charts, view remains the same – “Sell on Rise”, stop-loss according to appetite

This Stock might bang-head

This is another quiz, below is the hourly chart of stock which might take-off tomorrow with supporting market condition but, will bang-head. In above previous close & out at bang-head spot, tight SL advised

This Stock will fly

This is an quiz, below is the hourly chart of stock which might just fly tomorrow with supporting market condition. Above the ceiling marked, tight SL advised

Nifty – (Un)Budgeted’ly Expiry

Frankly speaking, never expected Nifty Feb to expire below 5825 levels, after the strong global cues from yesterday. Even till the dying moments, I was expecting an bounce above 5800. But, as my twitter friend (@ap_pune) says “Expect the unexpected” so, that was that … Nifty died today, Long Live the Nifty!!!
Budget was absolutely uneventful but, very much politically inclined for the upcoming elections. I’m still unable to understand the women’s bank concept? Glad that an PSU is not launched (using taxpayer’s money) to be solely run by particular caste/tribe/minority. I would like to see GOI FM once to present an budget to manage an single hard-working middle class family house-hold, let him forget the bigger cause of the country.
Anyway, below is Nifty Daily Chart, expecting an bounce from 5650 levels …

Natural or Artificial Gas :)

Daily Chart of Natural Gas (NG) and my amateur and unsolicited views …

GOLD – still glittering?

Gold Daily Chart below, nothing more needs to be said … while I write this its still calmly moving down but, I expect an bounce still.

NIFTY – 200 point zone

Nifty is at critical juncture with the trading range of close to 200 points for this series. We will see 5840 and we will revisit 6000 levels again. If one of this levels are not revisited then the bias will change in others favor for the next series for e.g. if 5840 is not re-visited assume an upward bias. My personal opinion we will see both the levels this series and close at the mid-point 5950 levels. This is going to be choppy market so, trade accordingly.
Below are Nifty Hourly, Daily and Weekly charts.

Defensive bets OR Outperformers

During this volatile times for NIFTY???, get into defensive bets or rather tomorrow’s outperformers.
These are my favorites and have written couple of times on them suggest, have a serious look at them. Invest in them at right prices, posting the charts for you to take your own call. Not interested in posting levels since, there is no response from the blog readers and I’m well aware of the levels for SIP’ing and exit, when necessary

NIFTY – EW Count ???

 

Disclaimer : I’m an absolutely newbie in Elliott Wave so, this is absolutely for my own educational purpose only.

Also, I’m not an big fan of EW; I like to keep it simple but, I’m told that once you grasp Elliott Wave Principle – it is pretty straight forward. Hence, experimenting…

So, here it goes first the blabber then the chart (please ignore the freak tail in the chart). While, I’ll take my best shot at impressing readers with my new found EW knowledge using all the mumbo-jumbo but, still it will be very brief and to the point. But, the key take away is if 5825/5815 levels are breached during this down-move the top will be in place, I said the exact same thing here without EW.

 

The 4 impulsive waves are marked on the chart, waiting to label the 5?. The 3rd wave looks like an extended wave hence, for time being ruling out 5th being an extended but, you never know???. Hence, expecting equality rule to kick-in which means wave 5 will be equal to wave 1, which gives us an target of approximately 6150 levels. So, expecting 6150 unless 5815 is breached which will mean breach of 3rd wave. Wasn’t that simple? Have a look at the chart, the story will be much clearer ………………… BTW, Comments are always welcome !!! 

 

SBIN – Banghead?

Wishful thinking, is SBIN banging its head at strong resistance and loiter around there for some time and break it to test next levels which are 100+ points WOW!!! I will be stunned for sure if that happens, loitering around here for some time before taking the right course is acceptable …
Weekly chart below ….

TATASTEEL–“W”

 

This is not an perfect double bottom pattern but, still falls under the same which is termed as Adam/Eve pattern

TataSteel, needs to hold 420 levels on closing basis and 413 levels on intra basis and we will see some good levels. Although its an investment grade stock, think we will get better levels in future for investment. currently, look at it from trading opportunity only please …

 

NIFTY – Levels to watch

Was not able to post earlier but, whenever I get time I do spend time on twitter @TradeAsInvest.
Here is quick levels for you to keep tab on for Nifty movements. Bias is still up for one last punt to 6150 levels until 5825 levels are broken with conviction, till then we will be playing American football – rough & tough not finesse :)