Nifty 31 Oct

 

Trying to get back in the range, keep an eye on the WRB here … The less it encroaches the WRB the more downfall and vice-versa … your current SL should be the WRB extreme

 

Trading Mistakes # 0

 

Felt, I need to include these as well even though fairly trivial and have covered it in parts here Rules & Plan

Trading Mistakes # 1

Patience for Entry – So, now you have studied the charts – identified an high probability setup and jotted down your entry plan and Risk and Reward for the trade.

But for whatever reasons (fear of pulling the trigger, forgot to punch in the order, OR the move was so violent the limit order never got filled …) you could not enter into the trade. Now you are watching the trade and seems like an perfect setup, the trade would have been an grand success and would have made you rich overnight and what not (Dream On !!!).

But, it was not to happen so, what next .. don’t jump-in that’s crowd mentality. Go back to your charts and try to identify the next best entry point to enter – it can be retest of the break-out level which often happens to shake-out the weak hands (its termed as Breakout Pullback), or look for the next support that might come into play.

Wait patiently for an valid re-entry point with an justified risk reward for the trade.

Nifty–30 Oct Range Broken

 

Finally managed to breakdown from the range, Hourly chart below with brief within the chart itself.

Let me know your thoughts

ACC

 

NIFTY – whats in store for Diwali season?

 

The expiry of Nifty was darn predictable Expiry Guess posted earlier

So, with the new found confidence am going to try and anticipate Nifty movement for the month of November. But, will trade only what I see on the terminal, this is just to be kept in the back of the mind to be alert of those inflection points where the reversal might possibly happen. Remember, as an trader we are just an trade away from facing humility.

Hourly chart below, which is annotated with all the information necessary

Trade and Invest

 

Why should one actively manage his investments instead of simple buy and hold strategy?

If you have knack of identifying fundamentally strong stocks trading at discount to its intrinsic value and have patience to hold on to the same till it reaches its true value. Power to you !!! keep doing that but, remember quote from Keynes “Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent” 

So, what do we do when we say Trade as Invest? We scan only the fundamentally strong scrip but, we do only quick due diligence on the state of health of the stock and industry and not the whole caboodle an fundamental analyst would do. Once we have our stock universe identified we break them into two categories – value stocks & momentum stocks.

CMC

Original posted on 16th Oct


Will CMC re-test its Break-out for an conservative trader to enter the trade?

Weekly chart below




22nd Oct Update below ...

Nifty Expiry Week

Nifty closed just below the crucial 5720 level. I don’t expect the range to be broken before the expiry to let the option writers on CE as well as PE side to eat the premium. So, only intra trades till expiry looks like which I don’t do anyway.
Hourly chart below, with Nifty range highlighted. Has been an month of great whipsaws, expect an violent move in the November series …

Yeh Desh hai Chor Uchchakko ka !!! Iss Desh ka yaaron kya kehna

Weekend it is & with Navratri its fun but, i do miss Mumbai during these times ... Although the song has nothing to do with Navratri.

Just in pensive state thinking about this country & my fellow country men ... not drunk yet :-)

will leave with a quote for you

 "The world suffers a lot. Not because of the violence of bad people,

 But because of the silence of good people!" ......... Napoleon........

Completely missed this one

 

Look at Dow Jones Index closing on Friday, that’s scary … never expected this so, early

Going to be an ride of life for traders during the coming short expiry week for NIFTY.

DJIA daily chart below, last mile stretch still remaining, I think.

Container Corporation

Can enter into this one for some quick  profits (i.e. ~20% returns in 3 months time horizon from my perspective) but, get in slowly between 1010 – 960 levels (if that comes, I think intra spikes will happen to fill the limit orders).
Partial profits to be booked at 1st Resistance level and before the Union Railway budget.
Weekly chart below

ZYLOG – WTF?

What happened here? No dent in the fundamentals of the company yet??? Rumours say that some block deal happened thru Karvy Financial because apparently the promoters have pledged there shares –not confirmed and  % pledge not known.
But, look at the long tail that happened sometime in the month of July, that tells something has gone fishy??? Someone has sold a lot at discounted market price of around 250 in July? Why??? Darn manipulators and operators, what can you expect when the entire governance function of the country itself is run under similar modus operandi … Weekly chart below

CEAT

 

Ceat giving an Ascending Triangle break-out, a good trade for the break-out traders

Weekly chart below

MCX

Testing its highs? I’ll take the trade if it gives a volume breakout from its highs (1430) OR will enter at the test of the trendline support (1300+) level. Stop-Loss based on your appetite but, not more then 2-3%. Daily chart below

CIPLA

Weekly Breakout re-test, 360 would be good levels to enter with 2-3% SL and target of 390+. Chart below

BHEL

 

Fundamental Stock, breaking out from long term resistance trend-line. If you missed to pick this one, another opportunity might arise during the trend-line re-test highlighted in the chart.

 

NIFTY Intra Update

Good RR for the Bears to enter now, SL of Nifty Spot 5700

Amtek Auto

 

Amtek Auto is testing Support levels on the charts. Bounce from here should give minimum 20 points. MACD Divergence seen on Daily charts. SL should be placed just below 83 levels

See Daily and Weekly charts below

CAIRN India

 

Cairn at Trendline support of the ascending triangle. Can be traded with strict Stop Loss for target of 360 and if it breaks out from 360 levels it will head towards 400. Buy at 330 Levels with SL just below 320. That’s an Risk Reward ratio of …

Daily Chart below

Engineers India

 

Engineers India is fundamentally strong scrip, waiting from breakout from triangle formation. Can be bought post breakout with 1st target of 300 and second target of 360. The Weekly & Daily Chart below

 

 

Long story Short

I was a Bull but, Fridays freak trade is making me believe that we are going towards 4900 level in Nifty. This just cannot be freak trade but, manipulators operating at the best; SEBI, NSE What are you guys made off? Can't you just cancel those measly 59 erroneous trades??? and restore the sanctity? I know, you will not because some big fish is involved here.
I'm looking only for Shorts now, at all levels with my SL in place. Bull to Bear OR Long story Short

Update - 8th Oct

Shorts from yesterday were scratched with minor loss because of the Gap up Open. Darn these Gaps and them Operators :)

Look at the NF 15 min chart below, fibonacci confluence offering nice bit of resistance to Nifty. I'm still looking for shorts and will try to re-enter at break of the double-bottom, with SL according to my appetite :-)

Nifty Swing Trading 04 Oct 2012

Boy, what a day. Glad, that I did not prematurely act on my bias but, did wait for the BO / BD check here
The BO happened with a Gap but, unfortunately I was not at my terminal to take advantage of it. else, would’ve been a 30 minute trading day – book partial profits at the 2nd 15 min candle and trail the rest of the position with Breakeven SL
So, what next

Nifty Swing Trading 3rd Oct 2012

Look at the Daily Chart below

Day Trading NIFTY – 01/Oct/2012

Look at the Nifty 5 min chart below