NIFTY – Y Pattern

Thomas Bulkowski would be proud after me identifying this pattern on Nifty 5 min chart, it’s a very rare pattern only to be found in FII driven markets like the NIFTY. A Song inspired by this pattern has become an rage or rather anthem with Gen Y, for the uninitiated, it goes like this – Y this Kolaveri di? … the song has also recently adopted by BJP after the FDI debacle with minor modification though – Y this Kolaveri Behenji?
Below the Y Pattern on Nifty 5 min chart.
On a serious note Daily chart for Nifty is also attached with my brief notes

NIFTY – Trading Lesson

What a day boy!!! A classic politician like “U” turn pattern. Can’t do anything about them politicians but, …
Have read it so many times that during trading hours the trader should not carry any bias but, just follow the price without any prejudice. Applies to life as well, NO PREJUDICE!!!
I still maintain my stance of this being an euphoria times for the markets, be careful, play defensive but, make the most out of the near-term opportunities. Be opportunistic fox and be agile and no bias please : ) No one knows how long this distribution phase will last, except for the smart-money. They will decide how much they want to let go at these levels …
Below is the Nifty as it traded today and my emotions all along : )

Nifty – (F)or (D)a (I)nvestors

Sigh!!! Saved from the whipsaw because of Gap-up else, I’d have surely shorted at the top of the range as mentioned yesterday.
Now what, although the FDI news should have already been discounted in the price still expect some euphoria tomorrow and some more in coming days. I’m getting more convinced that we are reaching a top here, I don’t understand much about EW theory but, this looks like an 5th wave in progress. Trade your short term bets but, do guard your investment portfolio, that’s what I’ll be doing.
Below is Nifty Hourly chart

Nifty – Bears where art thou?

I think the bears will show up at least in the short term else, they will go extinct forget hibernation.
Short term view
15 minute chart below –> Nifty within range and near previous top and 3 Day High, high probability short trade with anticipation of correction to let baby bulls enter & baby bears exit after an violent up-move. For the chameleon/fox in the woods if this trade does not work just change your bias and go Long. Remember though this is a whipsaw zone and consolidation for further move which ever way is expected. Early Bird gets the Worm but, patient Cat on the street is the Fat Cat

Nifty – Myopic view

Strictly for traders only, Nifty at range high – shorts can be considered by day traders based on the opening tomorrow.Target 50 points with SL of 20 points, not my cup of tea …
Nifty 5 min chart below

Nifty – on a Turning Wicket???

Back after long break, and I am sure no one missed me
Here is monthly chart of Nifty and as usual am bearish … be careful, really careful now

Happy Festive Season

!! शुभ  दीपावली !!

Punjab da puttar “PNB”

After State Bank of India, this is the PSU Bank which I like. Waiting for an sweet entry into this one. Also, if I am not mistaken Hema Malini endorses this bank? That’s like an Dharam – Hema combination … sweet
PNB weekly chart below

TATA “Jaguar” Motors

Tata Motors looks ripe to test 300 levels and maybe even 320 thereafter. Highly liquid scrip so, can even try intra-trades for some quick gains. Strong opening/close above 280 levels is a must
Daily Chart below

FOREX Charts

 

Bored of Indian Markets, looking at the Forex charts. Although, I don’t trade them … Forex markets are highly liquid and traded 24 x 5 so, very convenient for traders around the world. But, I’ve heard that its not legal to trade, except for the currency pairs offered by Indian brokers they are USDINR, EURINR, GBPINR & JPYINR and volumes are not all that attractive.

Any case, below are GBPUSD Weekly Chart and EURUSD Daily chart

GBPUSD – A long contracting triangle which means consolidation for a big move once that triangle is broken. I think we will go UP at least till 1.85 levels post break of the triangle

EURUSD – broken from triangle formation, 1.274 is the resistance and think we will visit 1.26 levels

 

Investing Steps – Baby Steps

This is follow-up or rather follow-down to the previous post , INVEST NOW

1. Open a Demat Account
Do it now, don’t worry about the brokerage etc. but, ease of transacting. except for the brokerage, most of the parameters remains the same with the leading brokerages. Contact me if you need any help with this.

2. LEARN
Invest in yourself and learn, Google is your best source. Spend time browsing thru blogs, plenty of them available providing insights, ask questions & comments, bloggers like me are always there to help

Start Investing Today !!!

Will not get into the details on need for investing because there are plenty of articles written on the same. The primary reason to take control of your finances and ensure your money grows is simply because that’s in your own interest. If you think the financial industry will help, forget about it, they are after your money & if in the process your money grows then you are LUCKY!!! I am not discounting the investment vehicles available in the market but, none of them are available for gullible retail investors like us. So, what do we do? We create our OWN!!!

Take some efforts, spend some time, make wise decisions and see your money grow. LEARN and EARN !!!

Will try to define a simple roadmap for new investors to help start building their portfolio.

Grasim–Head and Shoulder???

 

Looks like Grasim is forming the right shoulder, keep a close watch break of 3300 levels should give 3000 levels quickly.

Have nothing to say about NIFTY, just being a mute spectator currently.

Feel free to shoot questions & comments

Grasim Daily chart below for your review …

DOW–Whats Up? or should I say Down

Just could not resist from making this post, did not make any money trading this one but, still feels good when you think you are getting the pulse of the market.
Link which I had posted on Informed Trades Forum for Dow on Oct 26th and this is where Dow stands today post the Presidential elections …
Remember, when you Lose say Less, when you WIN say NOTHING. since, was not at all involved trading this, am at liberty to blow my own horn

NIFTY–Out of Range

 

Seems like I’m the only one with bearish bias on Nifty, all the indications (including Options Open Interest) are towards a nice ride to the top. Lets enjoy while it lasts but, I’m not participating.

Quick update on some of the previous Stock Specific ideas --

1. Cipla – Hit a Home Run with an excellent Quartely Results, first target achieved but, expect an run up till 420-440 levels with the kind of momentum seen in the scrip.

2. CEAT – Turned out to be an DUD with poor results, Hit the SL. its still within the rising trendline support, all is not lost. But, we are OUT

Below is the Nifty Hourly Chart with resistance zone marked, if reversal has to happen but, that will be post Diwali for sure. Comments are always welcome …

NIFTY–Accept Whipsaws

Whipsaws are part of the game and needs to be treated as part of the business expenses. Business expenses in anticipation of the profit as per your business plan. Accept it and move on, never doubt yourself or your trading setups because of couple of bad days & noises you hear of guaranteed profit doubling money etc. by the TIPS providers. If it was guaranteed they would be peaceful souls laughing there way to the banks by trading there own setups and minting money. Believe in yourself … That’s Advice to SELF after whipsaw week after week but, I know truth will prevail
Below is NIFTY Hourly chart and our market prediction for the month of November or maybe beyond. right till proven wrong … Comments welcome please

NIFTY 1 Nov

Movement as expected to breach the WRB, as mentioned during past 2 days update on the blog …
Here is the action as it happened today, first an 15 min chart for day-traders (an high probability setup for quick trade for 20 points) & then hourly chart which we have been following, don’t expect the WRB to be breached but, lets see …

Trading Methods

There are different ways one can interpret the same chart and take positions, that’s what is fascinating about markets. For every trade there has to be buyer & a seller and both of them think they are right.

A trader will have his bias created based on his particular set of studies & will identify an potential trading opportunity. He will further identify an ideal entry point with SL defined and further levels for pyramiding, partial-profit booking or exit levels. Similarly there will be trader at the other end to make the trade happen for you. Most of the times, whoever is well prepared, wins on the particular trade.

A well prepared trader who follows his trade plan meticulously and aligns himself with the overall trend will come out as victor in the end. Its not about individual trades, Green Ink on the P&L statement at the end of the year, that’s what matters. 

Look at the chart below of BPCL and let me know how will you trade this. I’ve just mentioned BUY limits on the chart but, similarly there will be sellers waiting with expectation of breakdown at those levels.

Nifty 31 Oct

 

Trying to get back in the range, keep an eye on the WRB here … The less it encroaches the WRB the more downfall and vice-versa … your current SL should be the WRB extreme

 

Trading Mistakes # 0

 

Felt, I need to include these as well even though fairly trivial and have covered it in parts here Rules & Plan

Trading Mistakes # 1

Patience for Entry – So, now you have studied the charts – identified an high probability setup and jotted down your entry plan and Risk and Reward for the trade.

But for whatever reasons (fear of pulling the trigger, forgot to punch in the order, OR the move was so violent the limit order never got filled …) you could not enter into the trade. Now you are watching the trade and seems like an perfect setup, the trade would have been an grand success and would have made you rich overnight and what not (Dream On !!!).

But, it was not to happen so, what next .. don’t jump-in that’s crowd mentality. Go back to your charts and try to identify the next best entry point to enter – it can be retest of the break-out level which often happens to shake-out the weak hands (its termed as Breakout Pullback), or look for the next support that might come into play.

Wait patiently for an valid re-entry point with an justified risk reward for the trade.

Nifty–30 Oct Range Broken

 

Finally managed to breakdown from the range, Hourly chart below with brief within the chart itself.

Let me know your thoughts

ACC

 

NIFTY – whats in store for Diwali season?

 

The expiry of Nifty was darn predictable Expiry Guess posted earlier

So, with the new found confidence am going to try and anticipate Nifty movement for the month of November. But, will trade only what I see on the terminal, this is just to be kept in the back of the mind to be alert of those inflection points where the reversal might possibly happen. Remember, as an trader we are just an trade away from facing humility.

Hourly chart below, which is annotated with all the information necessary

Trade and Invest

 

Why should one actively manage his investments instead of simple buy and hold strategy?

If you have knack of identifying fundamentally strong stocks trading at discount to its intrinsic value and have patience to hold on to the same till it reaches its true value. Power to you !!! keep doing that but, remember quote from Keynes “Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent” 

So, what do we do when we say Trade as Invest? We scan only the fundamentally strong scrip but, we do only quick due diligence on the state of health of the stock and industry and not the whole caboodle an fundamental analyst would do. Once we have our stock universe identified we break them into two categories – value stocks & momentum stocks.

CMC

Original posted on 16th Oct


Will CMC re-test its Break-out for an conservative trader to enter the trade?

Weekly chart below




22nd Oct Update below ...

Nifty Expiry Week

Nifty closed just below the crucial 5720 level. I don’t expect the range to be broken before the expiry to let the option writers on CE as well as PE side to eat the premium. So, only intra trades till expiry looks like which I don’t do anyway.
Hourly chart below, with Nifty range highlighted. Has been an month of great whipsaws, expect an violent move in the November series …

Yeh Desh hai Chor Uchchakko ka !!! Iss Desh ka yaaron kya kehna

Weekend it is & with Navratri its fun but, i do miss Mumbai during these times ... Although the song has nothing to do with Navratri.

Just in pensive state thinking about this country & my fellow country men ... not drunk yet :-)

will leave with a quote for you

 "The world suffers a lot. Not because of the violence of bad people,

 But because of the silence of good people!" ......... Napoleon........

Completely missed this one

 

Look at Dow Jones Index closing on Friday, that’s scary … never expected this so, early

Going to be an ride of life for traders during the coming short expiry week for NIFTY.

DJIA daily chart below, last mile stretch still remaining, I think.

Container Corporation

Can enter into this one for some quick  profits (i.e. ~20% returns in 3 months time horizon from my perspective) but, get in slowly between 1010 – 960 levels (if that comes, I think intra spikes will happen to fill the limit orders).
Partial profits to be booked at 1st Resistance level and before the Union Railway budget.
Weekly chart below

ZYLOG – WTF?

What happened here? No dent in the fundamentals of the company yet??? Rumours say that some block deal happened thru Karvy Financial because apparently the promoters have pledged there shares –not confirmed and  % pledge not known.
But, look at the long tail that happened sometime in the month of July, that tells something has gone fishy??? Someone has sold a lot at discounted market price of around 250 in July? Why??? Darn manipulators and operators, what can you expect when the entire governance function of the country itself is run under similar modus operandi … Weekly chart below

CEAT

 

Ceat giving an Ascending Triangle break-out, a good trade for the break-out traders

Weekly chart below

MCX

Testing its highs? I’ll take the trade if it gives a volume breakout from its highs (1430) OR will enter at the test of the trendline support (1300+) level. Stop-Loss based on your appetite but, not more then 2-3%. Daily chart below

CIPLA

Weekly Breakout re-test, 360 would be good levels to enter with 2-3% SL and target of 390+. Chart below

BHEL

 

Fundamental Stock, breaking out from long term resistance trend-line. If you missed to pick this one, another opportunity might arise during the trend-line re-test highlighted in the chart.

 

NIFTY Intra Update

Good RR for the Bears to enter now, SL of Nifty Spot 5700

Amtek Auto

 

Amtek Auto is testing Support levels on the charts. Bounce from here should give minimum 20 points. MACD Divergence seen on Daily charts. SL should be placed just below 83 levels

See Daily and Weekly charts below

CAIRN India

 

Cairn at Trendline support of the ascending triangle. Can be traded with strict Stop Loss for target of 360 and if it breaks out from 360 levels it will head towards 400. Buy at 330 Levels with SL just below 320. That’s an Risk Reward ratio of …

Daily Chart below

Engineers India

 

Engineers India is fundamentally strong scrip, waiting from breakout from triangle formation. Can be bought post breakout with 1st target of 300 and second target of 360. The Weekly & Daily Chart below

 

 

Long story Short

I was a Bull but, Fridays freak trade is making me believe that we are going towards 4900 level in Nifty. This just cannot be freak trade but, manipulators operating at the best; SEBI, NSE What are you guys made off? Can't you just cancel those measly 59 erroneous trades??? and restore the sanctity? I know, you will not because some big fish is involved here.
I'm looking only for Shorts now, at all levels with my SL in place. Bull to Bear OR Long story Short

Update - 8th Oct

Shorts from yesterday were scratched with minor loss because of the Gap up Open. Darn these Gaps and them Operators :)

Look at the NF 15 min chart below, fibonacci confluence offering nice bit of resistance to Nifty. I'm still looking for shorts and will try to re-enter at break of the double-bottom, with SL according to my appetite :-)

Nifty Swing Trading 04 Oct 2012

Boy, what a day. Glad, that I did not prematurely act on my bias but, did wait for the BO / BD check here
The BO happened with a Gap but, unfortunately I was not at my terminal to take advantage of it. else, would’ve been a 30 minute trading day – book partial profits at the 2nd 15 min candle and trail the rest of the position with Breakeven SL
So, what next

Nifty Swing Trading 3rd Oct 2012

Look at the Daily Chart below

Day Trading NIFTY – 01/Oct/2012

Look at the Nifty 5 min chart below

Nifty Weekly

The Chart says it all & the support coincides with the previous Daily chart

NIFTY Daily

I see correction ahead, look at the shooting star (price rejection at Top) and I anticipate correction till 5600 levels (marked areas). How to make trading decision on this? Go figure

Trading Plan–Essentials

As the adage goes “ Plan your Trades & Trade your Plans”


Trading Plan is essentially your Business Plan but, the constituents are different from traditional biz-plan. So, lets have an quick look at what should you consider for coming up with your Trading Plan & as usual, we will try to keep it simple.
It is all about 3M’s, YOUR Money, YOUR Method and finally YOUR Mindset

Price Action Trading - Webinar

Planning to attend this webinar at 8:30pm IST today.

Speaker is Brian Hoffman & sponsored by Ninja Trader. Registration link below

https://ninjatrader.omnovia.com/register/78331348154742

Rules of Engagement

As usual, we will try to keep the rules simple. But, before we define the rules for ourselves lets try to understand the overall rules of the game.

This is the only game where you play against yourself,
you decide when the bout ends and, whether you WIN or LOSE
OR you can play till death (of your investment account).
Rest assured, you will be the only one who will get butchered if you decide to play till end.
You Win Some, You Lose Some. Key is to ride your winners and cut your losses.
Hope you understand so, lets get back to the rules.

Tools of the Trade

What are the tools that is needed for day to day operations for this initiative that will give individual investor/trader an edge ?

Market Cycle

Any guess on where do you think the Indian Markets NIFTY can be mapped against the below Market Cycle?

Any case, will try to use only this people sentiment indicator?!?!?! to make my investment decisions.

Journey Begins :-)

ॐ गणेशाय नमः

वक्रतुण्ड महाकाय सुर्यकोति समप्रभ
निर्विघ्न कुरु मे देवा सर्व कार्येषु सर्वदा